AMI 0.00% 21.5¢ aurelia metals limited

Ann: FY20 Financial Results Presentation, page-45

  1. KKR
    1,205 Posts.
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    No worries it does take some hours of listening to get this down but I think it is important as the calls tell you so much more than just the released results. The Q&A today had a lot of good questions. The orebodies we mine are the biggest hurdle to get analysts heads around.
    My take on today is that they are planning a future restart of Great Cobar my guess in late 2022/23. Dan mentioned about the copper deficit in 24/25/26 and they wholly own what was once Australia's richest copper mine that has never been explored at depth. This FY they will be doing all the community inputs, environmental studies into the plans that has all been permitted from memory?

    The other big take away is the 4 to 5 operations both growing organically and 'inorganically.' So not only are they planning to spend between $22-$26 million on exploration with around 40% to be spent in and around Federation but also, “Our view is to diversify our footprint and manage on a portfolio basis an increase in the number of operations we run either inorganically or organically sourced.”

    “On current unmanaged basis our current trajectory would be a base metals dominant business. We going to redirect that.” Still allows for high value base metals and also for the company in the medium term to become copper ready in the view of cyclical movement.

    M&A would have to be on the cards. Copper and gold would be natural target commodities. Again listen to Dan's comments about how they are setting the company up for the short/medium/long term.

    Do I wish that I hadn't bought last week. Yes mistake, should have known even if the company somehow managed to beat last years figures they would have been sold down. Rookie error. But was thinking they would pay a 2c dividend that would attract investors. I also am wondering why we have 3 weeks before ex-dividend when last year we only waited 1 week? The only similarity is the payment date of 2 October. A 1c FF dividend now seems appropriate when you hear what they are planning to do and intend to self fund a lot of investment. They are building a bloody big war chest.

    Do I think the results are bad? No. They are solid results, income paying and not bad when you consider they spent $36 million of growth capital last FY.

    Is there anything here for traders based on these results? Probably not for the next few months. End of October for this quarters results.

    We will get an updated Reserves & Resources Statement for Federation within 6 months and hopefully a lot of continued very rich gold hits at Federation. There will be an enormous amount of drilling with a $22+ million exploration budget.

    Management have a number of plans that we just are not privy to at this stage. Am I happy with the share price? No not at all. Am I happy with how they are setting up the future of our company? Yes.

    All the best folks.

    KKR
 
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