Disagree with some of your points.
1) With this acquisition, the industry structure has changed A LOT. NTD is much more powerful. From the prospectus:
Note that non-branded wholesalers accounted for approximately 50% of the distribution of tyres in Australia. Also note that T4U acquired Tyre & tube in 2019 and that NTD therefore has 3 out of the 4 dominant wholesalers from this time under the one banner. They are a very large market participant, and as such, do have significant negotiating power.
2. Fx is not really that important (it is important, but it is well managed). Directly from the AR (a 10% currency move is pretty large....):
3. Regulatory risk- I can't comment don't know enough.
4. Competitive environment- NTD is a very big player now. Biggest risk is their suppliers deciding to go it alone- like Goodyear/Bridgestone with Tirehub which was the final nail in the coffin for American Tire Distributors in 2018. The acquisition here though again substantially derisks this outcome and because Australia is relatively a small market and these tyre companies aren't in the best shape to start off with, it is pretty unlikely to occur whilst the delivered service is good.
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