Ann: FY20 production and cost guidance update, page-25

Thanks for the info, I was not actually aware of this, I mostly follow the finances and the gold mining side, although I have been in for many years. It should be the government that sets tougher regulations though, and then also up to the shareholders to make management accountable through the board.

The production downgrade is not good news, never is of course. It was sort of expected after the previous quarterly update, although this is maybe a bit further than I would have expected. However, there is still good support at $2.50 which I think covers much worse than this when the Gwalia extension was proposed and when gold was lower. Who knows though, with the market, it depends a lot on the relative strengths of the different goldies. NST had a shocker today.

Doing some quick internal calculations, Gwalia forecast is nothing like underwater. I calculate something like $80M after capex, which in itself is a 4% return on the current market cap. Someone check me on that though. I have not added in the other production. I will wait for the quarterly before I do a full calculation of cash flow expectations. For now, I do not see so much problem with the downgrade as long as it is not a fundamental issue that affects long term production.

Of course, there is still a heightened risk until the gwalia upgrade is completed, and hell to pay if something goes wrong. If you have doubts you need to go over the costs and the forecasts and work out how much money they are making. It is worth looking back and comparing the cashflow each quarterly with the share price to get an idea what a share price bottom would be, and how much of the price is based on long term value. How do you think it will look when Gwalia is finished, back up to full production and good margins. Also gold forecasts. With long term production forecast you can usually bank on a long term share price forecast at least 10 times earnings.

I am still very happy holding, although less inclined to buy more after the info on Simberi. I would be very tempted though if it dropped to $2 I would consider it a bargain with the current forecast, even though my entry is at 14c.