I wouldn't expect the "catch-up" to be significant:Lower deaths...

I wouldn't expect the "catch-up" to be significant:

1. Lower deaths through specific causes doesn't cause increased probability of greater deaths from that cause in the future. For example if you don't die of 'flu this year that doesn't make you more likely to die of 'flu next year.
2. While death from age or natural causes does translate into greater rates in future years, this distribution has a long tail. Thus any shortfall in one year will be spread over many years in the future, which will dilute any "catch-up" bump.

The key drivers for profitability in this industry are margins on core services and sale of auxiliary services.