I said I wont post here because the debates get overheated and personal. I like to hear all sides - you dont have to be clever to make money just back the right people or even horses.
Herewith just for you:
Hi there, Decided not to get involved in all the hype and emotion. I have quietly watched all the noise:
My take on events are simple:
1. management have turned the ship around - It should break even or in all reality be profitable into the future. One must not take that as a given, we all believed it would happen - but we didnt actually know how much they had to fix. We could easily have been sitting here facing another Cap raising. We have before many times. They deserve a standing ovation for doing that.
2. As much as Gestro was trotted out as our saviour - I think the past years performance has been better than when he was around and with less meaningless announcements that dont result in numbers. I think they are a better team.
3. A company not losing money has time on its side and time allows a number of things to unfold even maturity of contracts and critical mass. Whilst you are not losing money you can wait for things to happen and work in your favour. I used to think that they should worry about competition I am less concerned as I think the time from signing the contract to revenue is a big moat for any competitor to overcome.
4. The last quarter positive cash flow was really good to see but the debtors which now seem to be building to a $2m base load is a bit concerning as we have never discussed the working capital requirements to fund the growth. I have ,as many of you have, assumed that the profit will drive that process. It may not but maybe the slow creep upwards will also make this an easy hurdle.
5. In my opinion even if they do sign big contracts in the next month my view is that we will only start seeing the train running in 2012. Guys we may well be bullish and they can sign today but these new projects are only going to complete late in this financial year or the next. What we can look forward to is the pipeline starting to make sure we will be profitable quarter on quarter. We must not expect too much too early we can now afford to wait we dont need more cash just more time.
6. The Elephant in the room is UWS - We have not heard about this project for almost a year. management need to tell us what happened - The good and the bad. After all they did choose to announce it to us. We deserve to be told what happened so maybe it is becoming an AGM question.
7. I sense that management have decided not to keep announcing anymore rapid fire deals that really have no immediate impact on profitability. I think that's a good approach but I think that it needs to not go overboard and then you only get minimal information. I suspect that management have been battered by shareholders seeking information and have become immune to these requests. It was always going to happen they are now successful they dont need money so can get on with the job. when you need your bank you keep him informed if you dont you say its up to him to do the running. In some ways it reflects a maturity we wanted but we still wanted the info.
Overall happy that we are not about to have another crises and that the future looks bright - This is one I would hold for 5 years and then revisit it not going to watch it too closely.
I do agree with Mljet I see a steady improvement in price and if you have some investment that has a 12 month horizon you may be lucky to hold there make a profit and switch into here. You could like me make plenty of mistakes along the way and not end up benefiting.
I am waiting for the glossies as they are not releasing very much. I may not understand the business as some have hinted at times but then its management who should be educating us if they want our shares to appreciate.
Badshare - like your posts
AHL Price at posting:
0.8¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
