There is a lot to digest in this announcement, but given the majority owner has a strong incentive to downplay the result, I will give you my initial view:
- EBITDA was $11.2m, which included $1.6m of set up costs associated with the new brand contracts
- I also assume that the $1m of takeover costs mentioned in H1 are also still in there, however there is a cryptic comment that suggests these costs may be offset by something else, so I won't adjust these for now
- The $35m-$40m of new contracts are on track for FY2019, which should generate EBITDA of $3.5m+.
Given the above, my initial view is that PGR is in for strong growth in 2019 even if conditions remain difficult, with EBITDA expected to be in the order of $16m-$17m+ and NPAT of $6m-$6.5m+, which at 32c translates to a P/E of 7x and a FF div yield of 8.5% (11% grossed up).
Given the above, don't be surprised if another bid surfaces very soon.
PGR Price at posting:
32.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
