I am not sure how you can say there is no basis for this...

I am not sure how you can say there is no basis for this announcement as it is just the forward projection of the last two quarters results. Given it does not include Da Vinci I would say there is a good chance it will be exceed on the high side.

LJ has nailed his colours to the mast and will live or die by this forecast. He has been quite conservative in the past so he must think he can deliver on this promise.

The key will be the 4Q numbers. If these are in the range of 20K oz with an AISC around $1000 - $1100 then this will go a long way towards firming up this forecast. Given how far we are into the quarter LJ must know exactly what this quarters numbers will be - unless he was a total idiot there is no way he would put out a forecast like this and then release a 4th Q result that was at total odds with this forecast in a few weeks time. If the 4th Q numbers were going to disappoint this would have been flagged in this announcement.

While it is always safe to assume that a disaster story will keep being a disaster (safest bet on the ASX), every so often a change in management does result in a turn around coming good. I think DRM is one such example.