I assume this continued share price drop is the assumption that Steel prices will follow the Iron Ore price in a death spiral. China appear to be reducing steel production and therefore reducing their Iron Ore requires to clean up their pollution leading up to next years Winter Olympics. Who wants to ski on black snow. The reduced steel output by China and their reduction in export rebates will lead to a massive shortfall in global steel trade and therefore the current record high steel price should be supported by China's action. At the same time the cost for Iron Ore for steel making will drop dramatically increasing the spread between revenue and costs.
BlueScope will continue to make massive profits with the above scenario no matter what the share price does. The capital Tax lose of $700M still outstanding at the end of FY21 will be gone by the end of FY22, the Northstar expansion will be fully funded and we will get better value for the buybacks at these lower prices. Win, Win, Win IMO
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