Ann: FY2022 Full Year Results, page-54

It does seem your stance has changed substantially since selling. Nevertheless, I agree to a point in your assessment.

However, there are two contradictory points.
First, you mention Spark is looking to exit sports. I tend to agree.
Then you mention that sports will just go to Spark to bid more, should Sky not cough up. This does not add up.

If Spark were looking for an exit, the last thing they'd do is take on an expensive, multi year content deal.



Also, with a $400m odd valuation and $150m in cash - it's still very undemanding.
At an EV of $250m, and using the current $43m FCF figure, it would take a lot to go wrong to lose money.

Look at it this way::
- The traditional Sky box revenue is falling at approximately 6% per annum
- Sky Sport and Neon are growing revenues faster than the above

So you have an EV/FCF yield of 16.8%, all else being equal. From what I can tell, the Sky Box revenues will stabilise, and streaming will keep going strong. And they'll cut costs.

I'm not a fan of the board, and Sophie has made a few mis-steps along the way. But the price protects you here. It may not go 10x, but it's hard to lose money. (Also why I have a small holding in Seven West Media [SWM])

So to answer your question of "Do people seriosuly believe Sky will be worth more than that in the future?" - yes, I think it's worth more based on my estimate of future cash flows.