this stock has been one of the most humbling investments I've...

this stock has been one of the most humbling investments I've ever had and I've had to reflect long and hard on the simple personal rules I broke

I've always thought the company had legs and wanted to see it succeed but never invested while it was loss making and on its way up. The cashflow profile of the business was deeply impressive to me and where it was going and what it was doing. I never thought the blip in 2020-2021 would be sustainable and thought it would be a high watermark for a few years, but the introduction of new customers would see it structurally bigger than before. and that much was true. the company had been disciplined on costs, made good sounds about scalability etc, and looked very sensible on traditional metrics like EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, PE, and especially price to FCF

but this new and untested CEO filled with BIG growth ideas from his consulting days came in with his new strategy - SPEND MASSIVE and they will come. it was clear enough in may 2021 what was going to happen. Inflation was rising, CACs were going up, the cycle from tech lunacy to sensible metrics was already well underway. But as a long term investor I tried to be patient and see where it was heading, not a particularly big position of mine, etc. but ultimately it was clear this was the worst strategy at the worst time for the business. and I ignored it, didn't hedge my bets or take money off the table, or sell out when I lost conviction.

The presentation today was sickening. The preso BRAGGING about an 11x increase in headcount in various rolls within the business. Using normally positive sounding buzzwards like "scaling" in the complete opposite way they are meant to be...normal when something scales in the traditional sense revenue and GP grow faster than costs. That's scaling. Here the presso on page 7 talks about "scaling content operations" - IE dramatically growing costs faster than revenue.

RBL are talking about increasing FY23 brand investment by 8x - up 800% on FY22. Forecasting up to a $35m increase in OPEX - all the face of rising CACs, compressing margins on nearly every front (GP / GPAPA %), and in the face of uncertain demand with rising interest rates and a recession possible next year. This could well produce significant losses, and while RBL has a negative working capital profile which provides it with good cashflows, at the end of the day using the timing difference between receiving revenues before you are paying your suppliers, means your suppliers are funding your losses. thats fine for short periods of time, but an incredibly imprudent and unsustainable thing to do over the medium and long term.

The AFR enjoys taking the mickey out of company and analysts do not find mgmts long term forecasts credible. Nor do I.

The new mgmt strategy is an amazing case study in value destruction.

Thank god I took the opportunity with the spike up in prices recently to sell out. I will run a thousand miles from any listed company where any senior mgmt or board directors related to RBL are involved.

Good luck shareholders.