I agree with all of that and have noticed the ten year chart myself. Of course, past results is no guarantee of future performance
Some of the nonsense the so-called professionals come up with... A guy on Aus Biz's 'The Ca.ll' last week was saying he likes the company, management, etc "but it's a hold, on valuation grounds. What???!!! We're on about 19-20 times earnings. We've got better ROI, ROE, growth, past and future expected earnings than just about anyone on the ASX. Growth stocks on high 20s to low 30s P/E. Domino's, REA... Even CSL struggle to match our numbers. Then there's current favourite, IEL, which to me seems ridiculously expensive. I'd put ALL up against those companies; and they're often 50% more expensive than us, usually with lower expected growth.
Another expert on the show was saying how ALL is "in a long downtown, going by the chart, and if it was 10% *higher* he'd be interested in buying." Huh?! You think the company is great, great prospects for the future, and if the stock was more expensive you'd buy it. I can't get my head around that. Hilarious.
I originally bought in the mid-20s back in mid-2020. Of course with hindsight, $49 would have been a nice place to sell but I don't really regret holding it down to $31 -- as silly as that sounds. I'm loathe to sell out of quality companies that I trust. I have bought a few more parcels in the mid-to-low 30s, including another one yesterday.
When l look at beaten up, quality growth stocks to deploy cash into, I seem to keep coming back to topping up ALL and my NDQ tech ETF holding at these levels on a risk/reward basis. Definitely some downside risk, but a lot of upside for the patient with a long term outlook. As Warren Buffet says, time is the friend of the good company and the enemy of the bad. I'm not afraid of holding ALL for another year or five years, based on what we know today.
You can be certain that when (not if) ALL gets to $40, the same brokers and fund managers, with a straight face, will be saying "it's a buy here for me. We've got a target price of $50 on it".
As disappointing (in the short term) the share price performance has been, if I want some schadenfreude, I start reading a few Playtech articles. After their "high net worth Asian-based investors" rejected ALL earlier in the year, they've gone from one potential suitor to another. It's all very unedifying. They should have taken our money at £700-odd. Now they're at £506!
One of our problems is we get lumped the 'technology' and/or 'consumer discretionary' basket with talk of recession, high rates and slowdowns. Then there's the ESG component, which I suspect is overblown. As with oil stocks, superannuation funds find an excuse to buy them when prices are rising! I'm not sure ALL belongs in either consumer discretionary or technology category. It's too easy a narrative to say it's on par with Myer, JBH or Wisetech. Lots of studies show gambling is fairly recession proof.
Hopefully we don't retreat into the high $20s, or I will be forced to buy more!
Anyway, that's enough from me. Merry Christmas and good luck to all Aristocrat holders.
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