Not sure why this hasn't been flagged as share price sensitive...

Not sure why this hasn't been flagged as share price sensitive given the debut guidance provided for FY2024 - notably, Revenue of $345m and NPAT of $46m to $50m (which, for those who know LYL, really means $50m).

Nonetheless, using the mid-point of the guidance, the stock is trading on a P/E of just 8.2x.

But that is an understated valuation metric, given the near-$100m of Net Cash (equivalent to more than $2.00/share). (Sure, the bulk of that cash is required for bonding and performance guarantees, but still, its existence needs to be acknowledged given the sheer quantum involved).

Assuming a minimum dividend payout ratio of 60% would result in DPS of $0.75 for FY2024, which is a dividend yield of almost.

The stock has been priced like the cycle is peaking but when you consider the macro tailwinds and LYL's diversity, both industry-wise as well as geographically, it is very difficult to see earnings easing by much, when they eventually do so.

Even at a share price of $12.00/share, that would still leave the stock on a raw (i.e., excluding any adjustments for Net Cash) of 10 times.


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