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$12.23 lycopodium limited

Ann: FY2023 AGM Presentation, page-4

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vfrioni

1,365 Posts.

34

14/11/23

11:25

Post #: 70886974
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Originally posted by madamswer: ↑

Not sure why this hasn't been flagged as share price sensitive given the debut guidance provided for FY2024 - notably, Revenue of $345m and NPAT of $46m to $50m (which, for those who know LYL, really means $50m).

Nonetheless, using the mid-point of the guidance, the stock is trading on a P/E of just 8.2x.

But that is an understated valuation metric, given the near-$100m of Net Cash (equivalent to more than $2.00/share). (Sure, the bulk of that cash is required for bonding and performance guarantees, but still, its existence needs to be acknowledged given the sheer quantum involved).

Assuming a minimum dividend payout ratio of 60% would result in DPS of $0.75 for FY2024, which is a dividend yield of almost.

The stock has been priced like the cycle is peaking but when you consider the macro tailwinds and LYL's diversity, both industry-wise as well as geographically, it is very difficult to see earnings easing by much, when they eventually do so.

Even at a share price of $12.00/share, that would still leave the stock on a raw (i.e., excluding any adjustments for Net Cash) of 10 times.

.

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Last agm LYL guided to
-> $232m Rev $46m EBITDA and $27.2 NPAT

They ended at
-> $327m Rev $70.5m EBITDA and $47m NPAT

LYL Price at posting: $10.01 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
5 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last $12.23		Change -0.030(0.24%)		Mkt cap ! $486.0M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$12.30	$12.30	$12.05	$528.2K	43.48K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	2	$12.13

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$12.23	1335	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	2	12.130
1	147	12.110
1	147	12.100
1	147	12.080
2	1752	12.060

Price($)	Vol.	No.
12.230	1335	2
12.250	147	1
12.270	147	1
12.280	147	2
12.350	500	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 02/10/2024 (20 minute delay)

LYL (ASX) Chart