Fantastic Results & well reflected in the SP Upside we have seen...

Fantastic Results & well reflected in the SP Upside we have seen this week.

Here is my back of envelope understanding.

FY23 Group EBITDA of ~$260m [Matsa 226, Degrussa 101, G&A/Exploration costs $69m]. Net debt FY23 closing = $430

Assuming realised prices remain same
FY24 (Back of envelop) [Matsa 230, Motheo 180, G&A/exploration 70] = $340m. Lets say $200 converted to operating cash. (After tax and working capital)
Capex in FY24 = $255m

At a high level the net debt at the end of FY24 could be $430+$60m+$40m - Lets say ~530m, over an EBITDA of $340 which is 1.6x - Not that bad

FY25 will be a complete different story once Motheo ramps up further.

This is now starting to look very good and market can see that. Current MC of US$2b. Plus net debt of $430m = EV of 2.5b i.e 7x of FY24 EBITDA which is not reflecting motheo ramp up and long term commodity prices.

We have come a long way from when the power prices in Europe and Matsa debt brought us down to our knees. Happy shareholder.