OMH valuation should increase due to Tshipi as manganese prices likely to lift with the S32 jetty disaster.
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Jupiter Mines (JMS) to benefit from price uplift. This will flow through to JMS’s Tshipi, we estimating
every US10c/dmtu increase in the 37% Mn price adding 2cps to JMS share valuation."
A US10c/dmtu increase in Mn price for tshipi should result in a 2 cps for OMH share too as the difference in the Tshipi stake is similar when comparing the number of shares on issue.
I doubt whether many investors realise this, hard to understand why some OMH shareholders are selling at 41c.
From the AFR
Cyclone Megan wreaks havoc on South32 manganese portSouth32’s manganese export operations face severe disruption after the bulk carrier MV Anikitos struck and damaged a loading wharf during high winds and swell stoked by Cyclone Megan in the Northern Territory.
South32’s co-owned Groote Eylandt manganese mine, located 630 kilometres east of Darwin, is the world’s largest single producer of the metal and exported 5.9 million tonnes worth $1.53 billion in financial 2023.
Damage from Cyclone Megan to Milner Bay Groote Eylandt Wharf, one of the world’s most important manganese ports.
“There will not be a ship loading at the port for a long time, if ever, depending on the cost to rebuild and the limited life of mine,” claimed a source close to the manganese exporter’s operations.
South32 declined to respond to questions regarding the damage inflicted to the wharf and ship.
“Initial inspections indicate the cyclone has caused structural damage to the wharf,” it told the sharemarket on Monday. “The full impact of the damage and subsequent disruption to production and sales volumes will be assessed when access to the port and other infrastructure is restored.”
The MV Anikitos was loading high-grade manganese for shipment overseas before the cyclone, but failed to sail in time, leaving it moored to the wharf loaded with 41,000 tonnes of the metal, according to sources.
Photos of the damage suggest the port’s wharf has been destroyed from the mid-part of the ship to its stern.
Sources also said MV Anikitos’ hull sustained a hole in one of its ballast water tanks, and divers would need to inspect the hull before any decision could be made on whether the ship was safe to leave the port.
The Australian Financial Review is unable to verify the claim about MV Anikitos and South32 did not immediately respond to further queries.
The mine is the biggest of its kind in the NT and the government is keeping a close eye on developments.
About 10 to 12 ships sail from the port each month loaded with 50,000 tonnes of manganese, about half of which are destined for China.
The NT government also boasts that it is the biggest and lowest-cost mine in the world, with about 140 million tonnes of manganese ore still in the ground. South32 has previously suggested the mine could reach the end of its life this decade, depending on whether a fully approved extension project proves feasible.
It’s understood the company is still assessing the extent of the damage but it remains confident that mining and shipments will resume.
Manganese ore, including from South32’s South African operations, accounted for 17 per cent of financial 2023 total underlying operating income of $US2.5 billion ($3.8 billion) and 11 per cent of the miner’s total revenue of $US7.4 billion.
South32 owns 60 per cent of the Groote Eylandt Mining Company (GEMCO), with Anglo-American owning the remaining 40 per cent. South32 shares rose 1 per cent to $3.03.
(20min delay)