Sayona Mining Performance Scenarios at Different Lithium Prices

Here's a summary of how Sayona Mining's financial performance would look at various lithium price points, based on their guidance of 215,000 tonnes sold (mid-point) and A$1,225/tonne operating costs:

At A$1,250/tonne

• Revenue: ~A$268.8 million
• Operating Costs: ~A$263.4 million
• EBITDA: ~A$5.4 million (positive)
• Margin: A$25/tonne (2% margin)
• Outlook: Roughly breakeven operation; minimal cash generation but stemming losses

At A$1,500/tonne

• Revenue: ~A$322.5 million
• Operating Costs: ~A$263.4 million
• EBITDA: ~A$59.1 million (positive)
• Margin: A$275/tonne (18.3% margin)
• Outlook: Solid profitability; positive cash flow enabling debt reduction and some growth investment

At A$1,750/tonne

• Revenue: ~A$376.3 million
• Operating Costs: ~A$263.4 million
• EBITDA: ~A$112.9 million (positive)
• Margin: A$525/tonne (30% margin)
• Outlook: Strong profitability; significant cash generation enabling accelerated development of growth projects

At A$2,000/tonne

• Revenue: ~A$430 million
• Operating Costs: ~A$263.4 million
• EBITDA: ~A$166.6 million (positive)
• Margin: A$775/tonne (38.8% margin)
• Outlook: Exceptional profitability; rapid cash accumulation likely leading to significant share price appreciation

The company's financial performance improves dramatically with each price increase, demonstrating the high operational leverage to lithium prices. Reaching the breakeven point around A$1,250 would be a critical milestone, with each subsequent price increase flowing strongly to the bottom line.