I submitted several of the online questions last night (my night anyway) One of the questions asked was "we are now 2/3 of the way through Q3, our we still on track to achieve guidance"
The answer:
With this being said I put together a calc that shows what needs to happen for them to hit their cost guidance.
We already know the actuals for Q1 and Q2 so we should be able to project an average that is needed to get to the guidance range of A$1150 to A$1300.
Here is the answer
to hit A$1150 we would need to have an average realized cost or A$1005 for both Q3 and Q4.
to hit A$1300 we would need to have an average realized cost of A$1300 for both Q3 and Q4
to get an idea of where we are I took the following calcs.
At the end of December we had 18731 tones of inventory, plus an additional 14,000 that was being shipped after quarter end for PLL customers. So a total or 32,731 tons of inventory. Thankfully part of the presentation was a breakdown of assets, one of which was inventory.
So if you divided 40 million by 32731 you get an approximation of what cost were incurred for that product, that turns out to be A$1222. (US $759). So they stated they are on track and expect to deliver upon it and the data proves out that they are in fact delivering upon it.
The company also stated that they would be shipping 30% in Q3 and 70% in Q4, this was because they have worked out a way to get higher prices staring April 1, 2025.
The 30% number represents 34,500 tones which is nearly equivalent to the tones already produced and in inventory waiting to be shipped of 32,731.
Lastly we started last quarter at the beginning of October with prices at their lowest point
By the start of this quarter they had rebounded about $70/t
And today they are $840
So overall lithium price is up and costs are still coming down... I am not saying we will be break even this quarter, but I'm also not saying we will lose our ass either. My guess is a small loss this quarter followed by a nice bump in Q4 to pull us a few dollars in profit.
(20min delay)