The discrepancy between book value and market cap and the very tight implied passing yield give me reason to consider my position, with a bit of profit taking at these levels appealing. But I can't see the demand for childcare dropping anytime soon, plus the low gearing and lost cost of debt wont change in a hurry, so I find it difficult to pull the trigger. The divided is useful and robust. I think I've just talked myself into not selling any for now, but will review in 6-12 months time.
Best Est*
2021 FY
2021 HY
2020 FY
2020 HY
2019 FY
2019 HY
2018 FY
2017 FY
1
Property
A
1,112.4
1,112.4
1,017.2
914.0
853.3
798.3
742.9
699.4
591.7
2
Other assets
39.1
39.1
45.1
98.6
37.1
27.4
20.8
26.7
29.6
3
Total assets
1,151.5
1,151.5
1,062.2
1,012.6
890.4
825.7
763.7
726.1
621.3
4
5
Borrowings
240.0
240.0
235.0
215.0
207.0
188.5
196.0
179.5
171.0
6
Other liabilities
32.6
32.6
32.8
45.7
30.5
26.9
16.5
15.0
17.8
7
Total liabilities
272.6
272.6
267.8
260.7
237.5
215.4
212.5
194.5
188.8
8
9
Net assets
B
878.9
878.9
794.4
751.9
652.9
610.3
551.2
531.6
432.5
10
11
Securities on issue
C
343.6
343.6
341.9
327.3
300.0
291.3
271.3
269.4
234.8
12
13
Passing yield
D
5.8%
5.8%
6.1%
6.2%
6.3%
6.4%
6.5%
6.5%
6.8%
14
Gearing
20.8%
20.8%
22.1%
21.2%
23.2%
22.8%
25.7%
24.7%
27.5%
15
NAV
$2.56
$2.56
$2.32
$2.30
$2.18
$2.10
$2.03
$1.97
$1.84
16
Share price
E
$4.17
$3.60
$2.88
$2.19
$2.85
$2.74
$2.41
$2.15
$2.25
17
18
Market capitalisation
C x E = F
$1,433.00
$1,237.12
$984.58
$716.74
$855.00
$798.16
$653.83
$579.21
$528.30
19
Valuation difference - Market cap to Net Assets
- B = G
$554.08
$358.20
$190.18
-$35.14
$202.10
$187.86
$102.63
$47.61
$95.80
20
(as %)
G / B
63.0%
40.8%
23.9%
-4.7%
31.0%
30.8%
18.6%
9.0%
22.2%
21
22
Property (implied)
A + G = H
$1,666.51
$1,470.63
$1,207.35
$878.87
$1,055.40
$986.16
$845.53
$747.01
$687.50
23
(as %)
G / A
49.8%
32.2%
18.7%
-3.8%
23.7%
23.5%
13.8%
6.8%
16.2%
24
25
Passing yield (implied)
(A x D) / H
3.85%
4.36%
5.16%
6.47%
5.11%
5.16%
5.68%
6.10%
5.82%
26
27
Best Est* - Applies today's closing price to last reported figures
ARF Price at posting:
$4.14 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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