hyperbole, bit harsh mate - calling it as i see the data,,,
I dont think companies should be dipping into overdraft or a small cash pile to pay dividends when they have so much money to be spent as per guidance and future liabilities for development, (some of the spend being committed already to Simberi expansion) ALso now wages pressures
NET cash position march is negative -2M
DIV is approx 23M if paid
Guidance lowered March report and then almost straight after
MIN guidance now 330K
Growth and sustaining Capital requires 42.3M to be spent just this QTR to reach Minimum guidance spend
Simberi they have committed to 13 M USD approx 18 M AUD
They need 85037 OZ production now to meet min guidance
Last QTR 82303, so Atlantic needs to increase 4869, Gwalia to decrease -255, Simberi -1880
Cost guidance, Dec - March report (change) to just being changed again
min Costs Atlantic 955 - 958 - 958,,,essentially 3 dollar min increase
Gwalia min costs 1435 - 1590 - 1815 - 26% increase
Simberi 1665 - 1720 - 1790 8% increase
Hedging -if Atlantic reaches min guidance and does 25475
Amount hedged 72010 over 20 Months at c2050 CAD approx 2180 AUD
Total amount hedged for 3 months 10801.5 OZ which is 42% of the expected total production of Atlantic is min guidance is met which is a large increase on previous months delivery
Cash contribution last QTR from operations 41M only for entire suite of assets
Production to be slightly up for group assets if it is to meet min guidance
therefore
Assuming the same before reconciliation of reduced production forecasts (gwalia and simberi) to meet min guidance, rising costs at Gwalai and Simberi
Given this data, I doubt very much if they were to meet minimum capex spends, cash contribution remaining flat, liabilities for simber committed,, wages pressures to find staff etc that it will have excess cashflow and bank balance to send out approx 23 M for a dividend... Sure they could do it but it is not financially prudent imo, especially as they have been downgrading their plans since before Vassie left so any forecast they make have not panned out for a very very long time
And its certainly not going to generate the initial capital spend of 170 M USD by the April 2022 comes around at this rate of execution if they forge ahead with Simberi development
Costs savings year to date meaningless with cost increases and production downgrades imo...
Anyhoooo, good luck
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