Lets keep things civil, we're here to analyse stocks, keep the emotion out of it.
No one really knew what the 4C would show, we could only guess based on the website numbers and reports from supermarkets. You shouldn't vilify people for guessing wrong.
On the positive from the 4C they clearly knocked it out of the park with growth numbers. Was also a surprise in terms of size of the rise in QoQ cashflows. Given the Singapore, Malaysia expansion and the whole vitabubs launch I was expecting costs to come in much higher.
On the negative though its still a negative cashflow and importantly the inflow doesnt cover the operating and manufacturing costs. This is obviously non sustainable and appears to be the driver behind the growth in sales. The costs should come down once bubs gets a better foothold in the newer markets but they aren't there yet.
So then the thesis is whether the larger market share can be translated to brand loyalty to then sell its other products to the same customers. DYOR on that one, my personal view is that that is still up in the air. If they do manage that then it should be higher margin there and they will do quite well.
Then my belief on the whole China daigou is that that is just a free option. If it all comes back then we will see this really rip, but the company needs to plan as if that won't happen and you should too.
On the shorts, wouldn't say they are squeezed yet. Their entry point would have mainly been around 80 due to the last CR. If we do plow through there then perhaps there would another temporary positive catalyst for the SP. DYOR IMO
BUB Price at posting:
74.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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