Really curious to see the results tomorrow. My 2 main questions : - pricing impact during H2 21 ? - level of confidence for FY 22 ?
1/ Pricing impact for H2 21 During H1 21, Capral had an increase of around 10 m for its trading EBITDA vs H1 20. Only 1.5 m of this improvement came from pricing/mix effect (rest mainly came from volume and operating leverage). During H2 21, I expect a higher impact from pricing/mix effect, at least to pass the increase of aluminium prices. 3 elements were expected to support price increase : - Capral is now working at full capacity, - strong market conditions overall for building materials, - less competition from imports.
2/ Level of confidence for FY 22 In its December 21 release, Capral was still optimistic for H1 22, despite a cautious estimate for residential construction (cf their H1 2021 presentation). Their dividend 21 (to be announced tomorrow) will probably be a good indication for their expectation of recurring profit going forward. Also interesting to know if they will indicate any further cash utilization (they had 33.8 m of net cash at the end of H1 FY 21).
