I don't think there will be a speeding ticket. This is an...

I don't think there will be a speeding ticket. This is an illiquid stock, is markedly under valued, and the movements yesterday were on very low volume. There's simply no sellers. Any interested buyer will push the price up dramatically. Even if they get an enquiry, unless there is markedly new information that they didn't release, they'll be fine.

There's two things really to keep in mind from my perspective. One, the capital allocation. Has a decision on Graincorp / Geelong Grain Terminal been made? If it has, I doubt it would push the stock price UP, I would actually think it will have the reverse impact. Has a decision been made on offloading the plantation to a European fund as discussed in the earnings call? Recent discussions with Tony Price seems to suggest this has not progressed. If something has come up and they haven't released it to the market, and the stock price is going up because of that, then they're in trouble. I don't think that's the case. But I do think if/when this comes about, it will lead to a large re-rating of the stock as they will need to return a lot of that capital back to shareholders via special dividends.

Two, the price of woodchips. To my mind, nothing has changed here. Japanese prices were locked in with escalation of prices. Chinese prices will be negotiated towards the end of the year. Global prices for woodchip remains strong, and are expected to peak in 1Q22 (hopefully when the negotiations happen!). FY22 will be an absolute cracker for Midway under the current market conditions, and when they get the benefits of a falling AUD without hedging. Regardless, Midway remains undervalued today, but there has been no change that I am awareof in the woodchip market over the past days or weeks to explain the share price movements.

Shanghai Futures Market, I've annotated up with my observations.