I am moderately happy with the results - definitely don't see any reason for selling, on the contrary I think the cyclical play is just starting to ramp up. Here are some of my notes:
•Revenue(+8.7%), EBIDTA (+5.8%) and operating cash flow (+100%) have reached inflectionpoint: market conditions are improving.
•NPAT was below expectations, as they booked losses in biological assets(-$2.3m) ratherthangains as I had anticipated. This waspartly due to currency changes, but still, would have been good to increasetheir NTA further with some gains here.
• NTAis now at 149.2c per share, while trading at 100-105c. Heavily discounted still in my opinion considering market conditions improving.
•Expectingvolumes (+25% to 3000t) and prices (+5% to US$180) to increase in FY22 with further upsidepotential – the positive is a lot of the contracts already in place for Midway,and plantation management is showing signs of improvement.
•Theimprovement in market conditions is based largely on increasing chinademand, but also just global dynamics of declining inventories, increasingdemand, flat/decreasing supply.
•Balancesheet is strong with further debt reduction (-$7.9m to $31.5m) and sale ofnon-core assets being planned north of Melbourne. •Capitalallocation has shifted from shareholder distributions (dividends) to growthCAPEX. Some of the ideas I really like(Bell Bay expansion in Tassie); some Idon’tunderstandthe value to Midway (Geelong grain port?); some could be reallyaccretiveto revenue/earnings (plantation “REIT”, carbon / biomass).
Investor presentation at 11am for those interested.
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