It makes sense as the market prices in a further reduction in production/sales.
The company did guide for $2,600 to $3,000 for this quarter, and given spot is now at $4,500, yes $3,700 is possible, therefore, $4,500 for the June quarter is on the cards.
Looking at the production/sales profile for CY22, I'm estimating a total of 440kt, which includes 80kt from Ngungaju plant, thus 8 BMX auctions for the year, 10kt per auction to keep them keen, thus pricing elevated.
So 80kt at $5,000pt ($400 mill) and 360kt contract at average of $3,200pt ($1.15 bill) = AUD$2.141 bill in revenue for this CY. Looking good, I'll leave it at that...
Ann: FY22 December 2021 Half Year Results Presentation, page-51
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