An old one but a goody is that "the market can remain irrational...

An old one but a goody is that "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent". I see "irrational" aplenty with our sp at the moment. Both Dale and Ken when discussing production to 30 June stress they are being cautious with 340 to 380000t estimate for year. We know 170000t produced in first half of year. So conservatively 170000t for half year to June. Initially first quarter guidance @ $2600 to $3000US per ton for contracted spod then the revelation by KB that prices now are getting up around touted spot prices of $3700US to $5000USt. So let's say we produce 80000t this quarter and 90000t next quarter to be conservative. And we price that @ $3000USt with one auction of 10000t @ a measly $5000USt. That if all or near all shipped will return approx $260USm. For the second quarter pump in 80000t on contract and 10000t on the BMX @ $4000tUS and $6000t and we get $380USm. SO $640USm revenue at say 71US cents to the $A comes to around $900Am revenue for the half year to June. Oh add a bit for tantalum credits also. All in my opinion being very conservative. I sleep a lot sounder than I did a few years ago.