Ann: FY22 Earnings Guidance, page-90

Hi All,

a couple of things to consider.....the GNC share price will always fluctuate in a 10% range. It is being traded by Norske Bank primarily.

with respect to feed wheat....yes the crop is being downgraded and we are starting to see some feed wheat exports through port kembla. ok so the price of the product is less....but look at what graincorp do....they handle the wheat, and from my discussions in the past, actually make more money from feed wheat.....why: well
The feed wheat is far lighter that the premium grades, with bulk density about 10% lower. This means it takes up more volume in the silos, and throughout the supply chain. So the handling costs do rise.
The second positive is that graincorp do have a very sophisticated blending operation at the ports, so if a shipper needs to sell cargo at x protein level, then by blending a lower grade and a better grade, can achieve a middle grade (ASW for instance) - and of course this also comes at a cost.

During the last big season, 2016 or 17 (cant remember) or so, much of the wheat was downgraded to feed and blended asw (from prime hard) - Graincorp made a motza out of that.

So just because of the headline news 'wheat harvest downgraded' - meaning lower prices, it is actually a boon for graincorp.

Interesting enough, the feed wheat is now being exported to other countries.....viet nam, indonesia, etc, its not a rubbish commodity its just that the protein levels are 11% less than prime. The term 'feed wheat' is a bit of a misamoner.

Looking at around $10 SP come July, on basis forward prospects.

...and dont forget the 10% fluctuations..once you have picked the bands its easy to make 10% per month on your holding.


cheers