Ann: FY22 Guidance Update, page-62

First 62 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
Polly Waffle

1,632 Posts.

135

31/01/22

14:28

Post #: 59245449
Share

Originally posted by thecrabpest: ↑

The problem is the full benefit of Tropicana isn't being felt (but is being realised) by the business right now.

Tropicana produced over 33,000 oz at an AISC of about $1000 (or whatever). They are some of the lowest cost Australian produced ounces that I am aware of on the ASX.

I think it would have been an extra $25m in profit for the quarter if it wasn't for the hedges. As I mentioned in an earlier post, the company still made good money on the hedged ounces due the the low AISC of the operation.

As others have mentioned in these threads, the SP would be sub $1 if we were forced to rely just on the production from Duketon.

Everyone wanted (expected) McPs to be in the construction phase by now, but we have no idea of when that would be, and that uncertainty has been a major drag - although costing very little.

If McPs gets approved by the NSW Gov and the board approves development and we start construction in earnest, this company would be producing around 600k oz per year without hedges within 3.5 years and SHOULD be debt free.

Assuming there are no more surprises and the company is able to self fund McPs, is when things get really interesting.

This is known as a dividend play, so let's look at that...

600k oz @ $1000/z margin = $600m (assumes $2500 AUD gold price and $1500 AISC - obviously there is the potential for increases in production, I believe the company is suggesting 700K oz p.a. production)
755m shares on issue (as per the last quarterly)

Which should result in an extremely profitable business.

IF the company paid out $300m in dividends over the course of the year, there would still plenty of money to re-invest into the business.

We would be looking at $0.40cps dividends which relative to todays share price represents a dividend yield of about 23%

I appreciate there is a lot that needs to go right between now and then, but it is a compelling prospect.

The 3.5 year timeline sucks though, and there may be better opportunities short term, but at least the medium term story is compelling despite the current pain.

Expand

That is an idealistic view but goldies have a tendency for AISC to rise with the POG, which is annoying.

Global average AISC rises for the third successive quarter

Source: Metals Focus Gold Mine Cost Service

RRL Price at posting: $1.70 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
3 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

Listen: HotCopper Wire Podcast 014 – Abu Dhabi wants to buy our 'true' oil and gas gem

PH2

Hydrogen – The new trends: Plug Power, Pure Hydrogen, thyssenkrupp

ASX Market Open: Oz trade to be rather flat with bearish Fed at odds with US rally | June 25

XRO

'Step-change' for Xero internationally with $3.9B deal to buy US bill pay platform

TKM

Trek Metals brings in another drill rig to dive deeper at Christmas Creek

First 62 Last

Add to My Watchlist

What is My Watchlist?

A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.

(20min delay)
Last $4.56		Change -0.080(1.72%)		Mkt cap ! $3.505B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$4.60	$4.63	$4.52	$1.877M	412.1K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
20	9537	$4.56

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$4.57	8506	17

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
16	10620	4.540
17	31967	4.530
17	24710	4.520
11	27585	4.510
14	30306	4.500

Price($)	Vol.	No.
4.550	10311	15
4.560	27230	16
4.570	20569	10
4.580	13522	8
4.590	48453	10

Last trade - 10.26am 25/06/2025 (20 minute delay)

RRL (ASX) Chart

Ann: FY22 Guidance Update, page-62

Listen: HotCopper Wire Podcast 014 – Abu Dhabi wants to buy our 'true' oil and gas gem

Hydrogen – The new trends: Plug Power, Pure Hydrogen, thyssenkrupp

ASX Market Open: Oz trade to be rather flat with bearish Fed at odds with US rally | June 25

'Step-change' for Xero internationally with $3.9B deal to buy US bill pay platform

Trek Metals brings in another drill rig to dive deeper at Christmas Creek

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

Ann: FY22 Guidance Update, page-62

Top Stories

Listen: HotCopper Wire Podcast 014 – Abu Dhabi wants to buy our 'true' oil and gas gem

Hydrogen – The new trends: Plug Power, Pure Hydrogen, thyssenkrupp

ASX Market Open: Oz trade to be rather flat with bearish Fed at odds with US rally | June 25

'Step-change' for Xero internationally with $3.9B deal to buy US bill pay platform

Trek Metals brings in another drill rig to dive deeper at Christmas Creek

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News