CDA (ASX) Ann: FY22 half-year investor presentation

Originally posted by XHY: ↑

Have been thinking hard to get a sense out of the share price movement of CDA for a while, but all in vain.
I regard CDA as one high quality aussi business with superb management team (at least when Donald was at its helm) and good solid board.
Things have gone very ugly for them in 2014 when their core technology was hacked and counterfeit Minelab metal detectors flooded African market. They've seen revenue halved and net profit dropped by 80%. It took them 3 years to get things sort out and to bring back 2013 level revenue and profits. Since then over the 4 years of 2017 to 2021, they've doubled revenue and increased profits at a even faster pace, i.e growing at 18% and 20% p.a. respectively. This is a beautiful turn around story and would not have happened without an ultra determined and resilient management team. I think that partially explained why the SP has tanked since Donald announced his retirement at last year's AGM. Some investors might have sold out out of caution, as they are yet to see how the new CEO will lead the business.
But the sell off has been carried out in such a persistent and oppressive way over the last 8 months to see the SP being more than halved. Nothing seems to be able to stop the downward trend. Not the very positive FY21 results, not the most recent half year report, and not even the insiders' on market share purchase. Why is that so? I struggle to understand.
Uncertainty aroused by the change in leadership is definitely one valid reason. However nearly all the board members and senior management team have been there for very long time. This should be a reassuring sign.
Some raised concerns about the recent two large-scale acquisitions. M&A's success rate is notoriously low. CDA's track record so far has been a mixed bag, with the acquisition of Minelab in 2008 being an absolute hit (paid $70M and 10 years later in FY19 alone it contributed $67M of EBT), whilst Mintec was a mediocre case.
And hence it was very encouraging for the management to confirm that the two new businesses were performing ahead of expectation.
The recent cash outflow looks a bit worrying. But if one checks CDA's historical cash flows, one would easily know that CDA is one of those rare rock solid companies with free cash flows actually greater than reported earnings. That's why they had nearly $100M in cash sitting there ready for acquisitions in 2020. Now they are in a net debt position, which is very unusual for them. Last time it happened, it was 6 years ago in 2016. I am sure with their cash generating capability, they will be able to pay down the debt in a timely manner.
So why does the market (by "the market", I mean many other individual investors) dislike it so much by only willing to pay 14X earnings, whilst ready to pay over 20X multiples for a mediocre business on the ASX ? What am I missing here?
I am a long term share holder and consider this weakness in SP a good opportunity to top up. But I am still curious about other investors thoughts, especially when there is such a big discrepancy between mine and theirs.

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Well it’s puzzling …. Market doesn’t really care about what others think …. And can be irrational at times… I just hope I’m right and market is wrong on codan…

really don’t know what the price will do in the short term but I will not be selling at this level….

I’m only guessing that codan was valued as a growth tech stock and not longer so… market is pessimistic about future gold price, management uncertainties and capabilities and also competition …. but again what do I know, I thought it was a buy at $10 and look at the price now

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(20min delay)
Last $20.85		Change 0.150(0.72%)		Mkt cap ! $3.785B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$20.68	$20.87	$20.51	$4.242M	204.5K

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