You would think so. The process sounds similar to what they do at Mt C.
Eg.Jan - Mar they make bookings for material to be shipped in Apr-June. This is determined by spot price/formula based on an index that they agree to for that market with the customer.
So when the transaction takes place in Apr-June they are paying for product at prices determined Jan - March. That is why you have that lag.
But from what I understood for Arg, this is done via a 2month window, instead of quarterly at Mt C. This is great that they have caught on to what they should have been doing before. It is what it is, as long as we move forward in the right direction. Prices will be going much higher from here.
I think the way things move will depend on the insights of the customer. If they think prices will go up they will try and book in price early in the window. Eg. for Mt C example in Jan for the next quarter. Earlier they lock in if prices go up, the better for them. On the way down, the longer they leave it, the better the price they will receive on the way down.
We just need to keep in mind that the weighted average prices are most important to what the price will be. The BMI data is showing the weighted prices are going up fast and one think that I forgot to talk about yesterday was the chat about taxes in Arg. They think they will be making so much more money then forecast that expected taxes will be brought forward.
Also, for GXY holders we also need to get our head around that there is not just one product. At Mt C we basically sell 5.7% full stop. The Arg product it seems will very more between customers and that will impact the spread. We need to understand the spread, and hopefully analysts will continue to ask what the spread is at each conference call, so we all get that data that we can work off.
Full steam ahead. Today I think some people realised what a bargain the Li market is trading at. Some of this detail would have shone a light on a few things people did not understand.
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