I had a read of the article. After much waffle, he concluded......

I had a read of the article. After much waffle, he concluded...

"On balance, and taking the possibility of recession into consideration, 2023 is more likely to be ugly (in the sense that Rogoff fears) than beautiful (in the sense that Fisher hopes"

What he failed to recognise and comprehend in his article (along with 99% of market participants) was what Fisher (alone) was quietly saying in the 2nd half of 2022. Although counter intuitive at the time, Fisher explained that the possibility of a recession was highly unlikely. Once I understood that key concept, everything else was just noise and I tuned out. I posted about it in this thread at the time.

In a nutshell...

Credit fuels economies. It is very hard to have a recession when banks are incentivised to pump credit into the economy. Credit does not get socked away. It gets spent quickly.