Similar set up to pre dot com and pre gfc. Unemployment rate bottomed out and rising. Inverted yield curve for a considerable amount of time. Long enough for people to forget about it.
Rapid recent drop in 3 month.
Conclusion: caution warranted. US economy has toped out. This is evidenced by credit growth slowing and the unemploment rate having bottomed out and starting to rise. The history is not great with the unemployment rate in this position with an inverted yield curve that has become latent.
Interesting times ahead.
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