Might trade down a little on some retail selling but focusing on this result is looking in the rear view mirror.
FY23 should be materially higher and with so much available funding, AGL will play a pivotal role in Australia’s energy transition which underpins their growth. AGL has a big pipeline of opportunities and a balance sheet to do it. eg Tilt Renewables portfolio, batteries etc
Asset base should deliver over $2-2.2bn in EBITDA and $1-15bn in free cash ... which implies a FCF yield of around 20%, this is what the take-over barbarians will be looking at. They are unlikely to care much about FY22 result.
Brookfield/Cannon-Brookes on the register now… they should move again soon whilst AGL is rudderless without looking for a new CEO/Chair.
And with private equity deploying capital at 10-15% IRR, the share price should remain well bid.
The other thing I like about AGL now is that institutions are very underweight as AGL has historically had such a high number of retail shareholders.
DYOR ... and be patient.
AGL Price at posting:
$8.16 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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