Looking at this simply1. The business has had a $50M negative...

Looking at this simply

1. The business has had a $50M negative turnaround in EBITDA performance over the last 12 months ($10M EBITDA for FY22 vs $60.7M proforma EBITDA in FY21)
2. Around half of this negative performance is due to revenue declining (from $176M in FY21 to $151M in FY22)
3. This means that the other half in the EBITDA decline must be due to increasing costs
4. All of this was predictable if you'd looked closely at the results for the first half (see my earlier post in the AFR Changing Tack thread)
5. Underlying free cashflow (after non operational legal costs and trading losses in the near term (haha what a joke to exclude trading losses form your stated trading performance) and non capitalised R&D costs will be in the order of negative $25-30M
6. The cash at bank of $48M is actually a lot higher than I would have expected. My guess is that the company has factored its R&D claim and/or drawn down on the CBA Debt Facility, so Nuix's NET CASH position will be much lower
7. Its becoming abundantly clear that Nuix does not have sufficient cash to fund a $25-30M burn rate over the next 12 months. It will either need to reduce headcount significantly (and that will also come at a cost if it involves Australian based staff), undertake a capital raising (hard to see Macquarie or any other sophisticated investor throwing good money after bad) or the assets be sold off or placed into administration.
8. If the assets are sold off, we can only look on at a Hunger Games like scenario as the class action firms, former CEO, staff (I expect a employee class action is waiting in the wings) all fight to recover what they can from the dead carcass that was Nuix.

I repeat again WHERE IS ASIC? WHERE IS THE ASX? Is anybody home or are you going to drop the ball a second time....