Yangi studies and HAS advertorials are clear as mud... you need to do the maths on Stage 1 from basics to see what is really going on.
Below is basic table I did up a while back on LOM assuming Stage 1 mon-con only (they have to actually make profits first to stay in business and build Stage 2 right). Using mine recoveries, we get an average 34kt to Mon-con, containing an avg 9.318kt TREO (ie 27% TREO in con).
Ann OPEX Stage 1 = ~A$200M, or A$21.5/kg TREO in com. 37% of TREO = NdPr, and NdPr = 90% basket value, thus the Ann Opex of A$200M = A$52.2/kg NdPr equivalent (ie $21.5/0.37*0.9).
Difficult to expect higher than 40% payability of REO basket to mon-con seller (tradionally mid to high 30's%). Losses to MREC, losses to RE-Oxides refinery, separation costs (opex and capex deprec'n) mon-con leaching, MREC, Oxide refining profit margins etc all need to be accounted for from monazite 'basket value'.
At 40% payability, A$130/kg NdPr price is required to generate A$52.2/kg NdPr sales revenue, which generates ~A$200M mon-con revenue to cover the ~A$200M OPEX (ie breakeven). At 66c AUD FX, Yangi thus requires US$86.1/kg NdPr price to break even. Breakeven does not cover any capex, debt repayments or debt interest payments. Yangi requires a price significantly above US$86.1/kg NdPr to make profits, cover debt interest, pay tax with enough free-cash left over to then repay debt (debt principal is repaid from after-tax cash).
At least 50% above breakeven as rule of thumb to even consider funding, so minimum NdPr $130/kg NdPr to be considered fundable (about same as the early years NdPr price assumed by HAS in latest Yangi DFS Update... about half the current NdPr price including 13% VAT in China). Off-take to middleman Trading House will clip the ticket and probably sell to China as no other mon-con refineries yet approved or not full of their own planned mon-con ore feed (inc ILU and LYC).
Beware, Yangi is NOT low cost compared to the existing big producers and better wannabes...
HAS Price at posting:
78.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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