Ann: FY23 Corporate Presentation - Year in Review, page-13

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simonj888

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12/10/23

12:24

Post #: 70307493
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Originally posted by 2ic: ↑

Yangi studies and HAS advertorials are clear as mud... you need to do the maths on Stage 1 from basics to see what is really going on.

Below is basic table I did up a while back on LOM assuming Stage 1 mon-con only (they have to actually make profits first to stay in business and build Stage 2 right). Using mine recoveries, we get an average 34kt to Mon-con, containing an avg 9.318kt TREO (ie 27% TREO in con).

Ann OPEX Stage 1 = ~A$200M, or A$21.5/kg TREO in com. 37% of TREO = NdPr, and NdPr = 90% basket value, thus the Ann Opex of A$200M = A$52.2/kg NdPr equivalent (ie $21.5/0.37*0.9).

Difficult to expect higher than 40% payability of REO basket to mon-con seller (tradionally mid to high 30's%). Losses to MREC, losses to RE-Oxides refinery, separation costs (opex and capex deprec'n) mon-con leaching, MREC, Oxide refining profit margins etc all need to be accounted for from monazite 'basket value'.

At 40% payability, A$130/kg NdPr price is required to generate A$52.2/kg NdPr sales revenue, which generates ~A$200M mon-con revenue to cover the ~A$200M OPEX (ie breakeven). At 66c AUD FX, Yangi thus requires US$86.1/kg NdPr price to break even. Breakeven does not cover any capex, debt repayments or debt interest payments. Yangi requires a price significantly above US$86.1/kg NdPr to make profits, cover debt interest, pay tax with enough free-cash left over to then repay debt (debt principal is repaid from after-tax cash).

At least 50% above breakeven as rule of thumb to even consider funding, so minimum NdPr $130/kg NdPr to be considered fundable (about same as the early years NdPr price assumed by HAS in latest Yangi DFS Update... about half the current NdPr price including 13% VAT in China). Off-take to middleman Trading House will clip the ticket and probably sell to China as no other mon-con refineries yet approved or not full of their own planned mon-con ore feed (inc ILU and LYC).

Beware, Yangi is NOT low cost compared to the existing big producers and better wannabes...

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Out of curiousity, what better "wannabes" are out there with a project that is as advanced? I get what you're saying about yangibana as things currently stand but it's not like the company is short of other tenements to explore. They've only done exploration drilling in 1/13th of their total tenements and if the increase in defined reserves continues to increase as it has over the past decade then it completely changed the landscape.
All that aside, the western world needs to create its own supply chain for REEs so projects will be well supported to get up and running. But if not HAS then who? If there's genuinely better prospects out there who are they and why are they more likely to get to full scale mining? I'm not having a dig at you (as I usually do ) but as someone who wants to make money off this sector I would be interested to get your thoughts on who is better placed so myself and others can look into them.

HAS Price at posting: 75.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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