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Ann: FY23 Forecast Financial Result, page-13

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bigbillbrown

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26/04/23

07:18

Post #: 67448218
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Originally posted by bigbillbrown: ↑

Pretty much agree with that.

The net profit is a bit irrelevant. If you look at the half year report, there is $5.6m of amortization that is mainly the goodwill on the Task acquisition. There is also $2.7m of non-cash remuneration (that is added back to get to "Adjusted EBITDA"). That is just the shifting mark-to-market on 29m employee share options.

I don't think Task holds cash on behalf of customers. You are thinking like Paysauce (I give Kiwi eg for you), In that circumstance, the cash is booked at the operating cash flow line as it is here.

They do get installations payments and upfront payments on contracts, similar to many of the better SAS businesses (It's cuts down churn a bit - or lessens the pain of churn). In the first half there were large payments on the re-negotiation of McDonalds. That's why cash flow was $10.1m (the other side of that was an increase in deferred revenue by $11.9m to $21m).

As for the $7m operating cash flow in Q4. It is a bit of a mystery. I thought in that last statement they would point to some one-off factors but they didn't. There was one "deployment", the pizza thing, maybe some up-fronts, and they referred to strong Mcdonalds revenue with the World Cup promotion. There will be an element of timing. Q3 operating cash flow was only $0.5m - so can take average of $3.75m a quarter. That is only $15m annualised so not that far ahead of $12 EBITDA. I think indicates accelerating profitability. My main thought though is higher cash flow than expected is the oppositive of what we normally see and very auspicious.

I am new to the story myself Muse and working a few things out still. The exciting thing is that the SAS business, the old Task, does seem to have reached a tipping point. Wasn't doing much even when Plexure bought it but now growing top line at 50% and seems to have a good competitive position and global opportunities. It's not like it is a new business. It is 20 yrs old or something but SAS businesses can and usually do take a lot longer than you think to get going but when they do, they can be rocket ships. Again, to refer to your kiwiness, think Diligent Boardbooks. Dropped to 6c, going nowhere, then the the IPAD became popular and boom, billions. That was the name that launched Milford really.

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Actually, to put it more simply, first half EBITDA was $2m, second half $10m. Second half cash flow was $7.5m. Actually, a little below EBITDA as is to be expected as that deferred revenue gets recognised.

Run rate EBITDA $20m in the second half with growth and the re-priced Mcdonalds contract as referred to by Blizzard. And not much in the way of capex with Task.

EV about $125m, so trading about 6x EBITDA. Doesn't compute for a grow recurring revenue business.

TSK Price at posting: 40.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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