AKE (ASX) Ann: FY23 Full Year Results Briefing

Originally posted by findinggems: ↑

"I remember reading that lithium hydroxide is relatively unstable so I don't know if they can go full bore at Naraha and stockpile until the buyers are ready to take delivery or whether it has to be more of a just-in-time process."

That's because lithium hydroxide has a .. for a lack of a better phrase ... shorter shelf-life ... such that you need it to be in a tightly sealed bag so as not to interact with surrounding air, otherwise would get moist and have water in it. It has a very high absorption of carbon dioxide. Hence, the importance of producing lithium hydroxide near where the supply chain is.

FYI: Lithium hydroxide is used in space by NASA at the ISS to remove carbon dioxide to produce water and lithium carbonate :

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/edu/teach/activity/the-air-up-there-making-space-breathable
https://www.nasa.gov/pdf/519347main_AP_ST_CO2Removal_Therm.pdf

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Thanks once again fg. I have an image of you shaking your (featureless) head in annoyance at yet another of my poorly constructed moderately inaccurate observations.

But back on the horse ... my guess it will take Toyota Tsusho at least a couple of years to repeat what they they did with Naraha Stage One: they had groundbreaking at the site in August 2019, by November 2020 construction was more than 80% complete and by October 2021 construction was virtually complete and they had moved into the pre-commissioning phase, hoping to start commissioning in the March quarter of 2022. They hit first production in October 2022. So just over three years with COVID from start to production, and now another 6 to 12 months for buyers to qualify the product.

Prudence would suggest they allow another three years to bring stage 2 into production (which last time I heard was to be a replication of stage one, including of nameplate). So if they announce about now their intention to double up on Naraha and break-ground in say the March quarter of next year then they should have both stages running at nameplate for an aggregate 20ktpa of hydroxide by say 2027-28. That timing would marry up nicely with them ramping up to be producing 1.5m EVs a year by 2030, remembering that a main task of Toyota Tsusho is to secure upstream commodity supply lines for the Toyota mothership.