"Where do you get PE over 40 from? I'm getting about 32...

"Where do you get PE over 40 from? I'm getting about 32 currently and forward FY2025 of 23 based on analyst estimates."

I think we're talking at cross purposes; I was talking about a prospective FY2023 multiple because - rightly or wrongly - that's still where the market will be taking its valuation cues for the time being, and I strongly suspect your 32x number applies to FY2024 (because there is zero way that's a FY2023 multiple)

Also, I use normalised figures.

i.e., in the results just reported I've adjusted the $441m Reported Pre-Tax Profit figure for the $333m gain on TI and the $13m M&A related and restructuring costs, resulting in Adjusted PBT of $121m, to which I then applied a notional 30% tax expense, to get NPAT of $85m, or EPS of 24cps

And then in the current half - in which TI will make full-period contribution instead of just 3 months which it did in DH2022, my simple model spits out PBT of $160m to $165m (NPAT of ~$110m to $115m (up ~35% on pcp) , or EPS of 31cps -33cps.

So that gives FY2023 EPS of around 55 cps to 57.

Ergo, P/E of ~40.5x to 41.5x

For what it's worth, I don't envisage FY2024 EPS of 70cps - which would represent 25% growth on my normalised 56cps EPS in FY2023 - as being unachievable provided everything went to plan. (Remember FY2024 will have a full-period contribution from TI, whereas in FY2023 it was only owned outright for 9 months.

That would yield a prospective FY2024 P/E multiple of 32x.

I think it will take some time for the earnings growth to first chew into that multiple before the stock price is able to do much advancing.

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