Ann: FY23 Half Year Results Announcement, page-9

I started playing with some numbers and thought I'd share them here for any comments. These are my What if numbers, not BBN's. But I've included their aims on the GPM and NPAT.

What if

Sales

6m

12 m

Forecast

required

Sales

254.9

533.9

279.0

GP

94.7

203

GPM & GPMTarget

37.15

38

(38 to 39%)

Other costs below GP

89.6

180.0

Other costs/ sales %

35.15

33.71

NPAT

5.1

22.9

(21.5 to 24 m)

NPAT/Sales %

2.00

4.29

No of sharesm

134.9

134.9

EPS - cents

0.170

(FY22 17.7 c)

Share price

2.20

P/E

13.0

The above full year projected sales implies sales of $279 m for the 2nd half being needed.

With 5 new stores in the past half and another in Feb23 and no organic growth from the PCP, that might be possible.

Turnover $254.9m/70 stores = $3.64 m per store for the 1HFY23 . So 6 stores - if they did say half that T/O each would be x 1.8 meach = 10.8 m

2HFY22 sales were $268.2 m - add $10.8 m

So a full year bottom line might be possible subject to:

Maintain existing sales level

New stores at half the T/O of their peers (on average)

GPM 38%

Other costs, below GP, being maintained at double the $ figure of the first half (doubtful)

I need more time to go through the above - in particular 'Other costs below the GP' but it looks like a tough ask to maintain sales and raise the GPM

and to reduce the 'other costs below the GP' against a pressed consumer at the moment