Ann: FY23 Investor Presentation, page-7

First 7 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
fourdollars

1,088 Posts.

1094

17/11/23

14:03

Post #: 70964225
Share

Originally posted by Hopeful9: ↑

After achieving excellent short term returns elsewhere, I bought back in recently, noting stayer's postings.

As expected, an excellent result. Oilseeds was a standout.

That the dividend is being maintained will please many, except perhaps Roger Montgomery.

The lower capex (from $70 million in FY 22 to $51 million in FY 23) is a possible concern, indicating that GNC may not be doing enough to rejuvenate ageing assets.

The carry-in this year will be lower than FY 23, and receivals will be significantly lower. From a quick read of the results announcement, GNC didn't mention this, glossing over the situation. Not good!

Others will be more expert on buybacks than me but they've been criticised by some SH in other companies for making it easier for executives to achieve STIP bonuses.

That GNC received A$104 million net proceeds (i.e. after tax) from the UMG delisting on 15 November, yesterday, is great timing.

Higher throughout of port assets away from grain (i.e. Port Kembla) will please HC contributor Portsmouth.

It may be that we are in for two to three years of below average rainfall on a fair swathe of the Australian east coast so that will mean a poorer harvest, and it could easily be drought for a while in northwest and western NSW (and probably southwest Queensland but I don't watch the weather there as much). In this case GNC may receive a payment each year from its insurer re the Crop Protection Contract.

There's mention of the Canadian business requiring recapitalisation.. Is this a negative?

The NZ writeoff of $19 million is unexpected.

The further oilseeds likely initiative in Western Australia looks promising, and is a backhanded way at further increasing GNC's presence in what can be a huge granary state, despite how one could never foresee CBH's co-operative structure changing unless there was massive mismanagement or huge scandalous fraud.

Expand

Nice to have you back on board@Hopeful9. Sounds like you timed you exit and re-entry well. If so, congratulations ...

Totally agree on your comments re: corporate costs. Fat cats can't help themselves when there is money sloshing around.

Macquarie sheds some light on the mooted WA crushing plant expansion. It forecasts capex of $385m, expects the first full year of operation to be FY27 and forecasts $30m EBIT in that year. Also expects "ramp-up" from there, but the ramp-up is not quantified.

It is pessimistic about the ECA winter crop - forecasting 18MT vs ABARES estimate of 20.8MT and prior-year actual of 29.5MT.

FY24 forecast - eps 51c, dividend 35cps
FY25 forecast - eps 41c, dividend 29cps

12-month price target $9.70. Outperform.

GNC Price at posting: $7.89 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

1 Great analysis

Reply