I think you are right about the AGL pricing. Looking at Q3 revenue of $359K on sales of 44,930GJ is $8GJ which supports your numbers.
It's hard to reverse engineer the AGL contract but it has a major influence on what VEN's cashflow looks like moving forward. This is my guess on what it could look like based on the little we know.
AGL deal- $15m pre-payment for 9-16PJ's through to Dec. 26 is two supply tranches. To be provided as a mix of firm and variable pricing at market rates. I assume that AGL don't want to sink VEN so they need to let some cash through and would pro-rate the production over 3 years (24-26)
1. Two supply tranches, so one deal for the first 9pj's another for the next 7pj's.
2. The first tranche needs to pay the $15m plus interest, say 20% so $18m (so $2gj)
3. So the first tranche price could be $10gj? ($8gj cash plus $2 pre-payment)
4. The remaining 7pj's could then be at variable pricing but with a toll payable to AGL. Say $1gj?
So AGL's return for $15m pre-payment to VEN would be between $18-25m. Pretty basic but I need something to plug into a spreadsheet!! I put this up in the hopes of getting some discussion going about the AGL deal. Any feedback is welcome.
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