We now have a first pass estimate of what GC21 is worth with oil @ $70, of $17.27m USD.
Otto 'only' took a 19.8m USD impairment on GC21, balance of 17.27m USD 30th June for GC21. So 17.27m USD is best guestimate of what GC21 would be worth with oil @ $70, since then the oil price is up over $20 USD per barrel. Not appropriate to use the same metrics on SM71 though, as accounting standards only decrease the value with impairments and never increase with an upwards revaluation (unless it is a reversal of an earlier impairment). SM71 carrying value is 10.6m USD, so that's the basement price of SM71with oil @ $70, it's obviously worth a heck of a lot more than that, probably 2.5x what GC21 is worth.
@gdn001 enjoyed your valuation spreadsheet with the scenarion valuations, I note for GC21 there was a low estimate of 9.29m, mid of 11.14m and a high of 16.23m, wiith a 7m 'My Guess' amount used, and you deducted further with 15m for capex across all projects. I note the VIU (Value in Use) calculation that Otto performed already incorporates future capex. In short, I think the annual report shows the GC21 estimates to be too conservative, with oil @$90 we are probably looking at 25m USD for GC21. SM71 and Lightning valuations would also likely surprise on the upside too imo. time will tell, hopefully soon.
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