yes. an easy way to sense check what earnings power should be in FY24 is to add say 120bps to the float interest - ie 1.2% x $2.6bn = $31mm (simply assuming they can get 3% even though CB rates globally are more like 4-5%), then take $10mm out of costs (simply what theyve guided to, this is not aggressive at all given cost build), then give them maybe another $5mm for operating leverage as the biz should return to a bit of growth. add that to the $37mm in EBITDA they earnt last yr and you get to a high $70s, low $80s EBITDA mm number pretty easily. and thats before they get out totally from the $35mm of cost at PCSIL...note that even this number is still miles ahead of sell-side consensus ($54mm currently) so the street is still well behind on the story and needs to catch up.
all against a $450mm EV today, so call it 5, 5.5x EV/EBITDA. Most gifting business (which this largely is) trade at solid double digit multiples so assuming a line put under the Irish issues the rerate still has a hell of a long way to go. And no reason interest income stops at just 3% carry...
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