hard to say. a lot depends on your view of normalized interest...

hard to say. a lot depends on your view of normalized interest rates, given so much of the earnings power of the model comes from the float (this is a good thing, not a bad thing). a reasonable assumption would be rates stay at least 3% for much of the medium term (i think at least, hard to see global interest rates getting anywhere close to zero again given underlying inflationary impulse). on that basis i think you can capitalize much of FY24 earnings at a reasonable multiple (since interest rates on the float will go higher, not lower, at least for the foreseeable future), maybe 8x?

the other thing is so much of the business is consuming capital but not really earning anything (yet). Sentennial is basically breakeven today but could be sold (I guess) for at least half what they paid, maybe a good deal more. thats $50-100mm in value (without taking away from earnings). then theres PCSIL - $35mm of opex in the PnL with negative earnings power attached. what if they simply put that in run-off?

all in all, I think SoTP today is conservatively around $1.8 or so - this assumes about $120mm of value for PFS UK, the healthy bit that looks to be free and clear within 3-4mos, but may well be sold as part of a holistic solution where PCSIL gets wound down or something. i think it also reasonably likely there is a whole-company bid around $2, or more, that the board simply decides to take, in the next few months.

either way still 60-80% upside from current levels, largely derisked. I bought more shares at $1.1 after earnings and understanding the new disclosures.