Note: we are talking about an increase of EPS in the vicinity of...

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lost

2,869 Posts.

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27/08/23

11:36

Post #: 69569810
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Originally posted by lost: ↑

Listening to the recording, here are further points:
Up to $AUD10M in revenue which will have no costs associated with it. This was delayed due to the timing of the placement of FUM (VPC delay in finalising agreements until recently)
Accelerated FUM from VPC of the order of $USD3B for one fund to close in FY24 and other FUM strategies.
Pennybacker FUM raising likely to continue (Fund VI raising - at $USD1B already).
Proterra Asia sold at 42 times earnings.
PAC managed FUM will trigger an increase in earnings - PAC should be charging annual fees in the vicinity of 1%. Assuming $USD200M in FUM initially, $USD2M ($AUD3.125M at 64c).
Carlisle will grow FUM for the first time in a while, going back into markets for FUM raising.
PAC has $USD30M ($USD10M and undrawn debt of $USD20M) and will add in the vicinity of $AUD6M to annual revenue.

Reasons to increase revenue/earnings in FY24:
Pennybacker moving to Tier 1 - add $AUD3-4M (Paul commented PennyBacker's returns to PAC will be multiples of what was received this year)
VPC FUM raising where PAC will contribute and generate distribution fees on $USD3-5B on FUM - add $AUD5-7M.
PAC management of FUM - add $AUD3M.
Delayed revenue (assume this is primarily from VPC FUM deployment) - add $AUD10M.

Detractors/costs impacting revenues in FY24:
Increased interest expense for new investment - reduce by $AUD3M.
Assume cost increases of $USD1M - reduce by $AUD1.5M
Reduce acquisition costs of a new investment - reduce by $AUD1.5M
Reduce by UBS cost to tender the sale of the PAC business - reduce by $AUD1.5M

Total of increases -
Upper end of $AUD24M increase
Lower end of $AUD19M increase

Apply increased costs of $AUD7.5M

Net increase range of between $AUD11.5M to $AUD16.5M or 22c to 31c per share in earnings.

Therefore EPS FY23 = 51c, FY24 in the range of 73c and 82c (note: this excludes any potential revenue growth from a new investment) - Greg this will likely add to earnings which may take EPS up to the high 80's.

The question remains what are we willing to part with PAC shares for?
$16.40 per share at 20 times earnings at 82c
$14.76 per share at 18 times earnings at 82c
$13.12 per share at 16 times earnings at 82c
$11.48 per share at 14 times earnings at 82c

I would put my money on the upper end due to:
1. Future high growth, the diligence process will qualify this for takeover participants.
2. It is very hard to replicate the PAC business and its boutiques of assets.
3. Disciplined management able to provide high growth with more capital.
4. PAC is almost at a point where the cashflow is available to acquire good boutiques in the $USD30M mark.
4. Other parties looking to invest in PAC will be from US. Apollo knows the value of PAC and is highly likely to be one of the participants given its understanding of Private Credit and what VPC has to offer.

Keen on others thoughts

Best of Luck
Lost

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Note: we are talking about an increase of EPS in the vicinity of 60% for FY24.

PAC Price at posting: $10.59 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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