Just to reinforce what @Ubermicro & @madamswer said above.
This is what they said in their 1H23 results preso on the 28th of Feb:
So they delivered $6.6m in operating EBITDA in 2H23 and if they annualise those results, you get EPS of ~7.5c which is FY22 profitability...I mean it's scary how close they got given the size of the business (a cynic might even think they fudged something like the inventory numbers).
Like they said, they took a hit on the top line to improve margins, but to deliver those margins with FX rates at ~67c is quite something. I can also see why they want to pivot to exclusive brands with minimal substitution options.....I've changed tyres on my car in the last 6 mths and although prices have gone up, you'd be silly not to shop around as a consumer.....the upside being that commercial tyre demand is expected to remain strong (~50% of the business)
Period Sales GM Avg FX EBITDA 1 1H 2018 66,696 32.9% 0.780 2,377 2 2H 2018 79,604 32.4% 0.767 9,144 3 1H 2019 83,762 30.2% 0.721 6,833 4 2H 2019 84,603 27.2% 0.708 5,989 5 1H 2020 80,454 27.0% 0.683 6,363 6 2H 2020 78,403 25.0% 0.657 5,821 7 1H 2021 212,403 28.4% 0.729 20,769 8 2H 2021 249,130 31.0% 0.765 32,824 9 1H 2022 251,488 29.0% 0.730 17,472 10 2H 2022 306,421 28.5% 0.716 23,006 11 1H 2023 295,931 27.1% 0.671 13,730 12 2H 2023 286,353 29.2% 0.671 22,544
What I expected was inventory would fall, but still at ~130m which by my calcs is ~3-4 times monthly sales (COGS)....not sure if this is high from a stock perspective, but certainly a business that needs decent working capital.
Only had a chance to look at the accounts now, but when I saw the price drop to 55c I thought they must have had a disaster.....if anything, it was quite a solid (strong) performance as the highlighted posters pointed out......with just a moderate outlook (improvement in performance), but justified given ongoing FX weakness and economic uncertainty.
One this where mgmt slipped up is they really should learn not to release accounts in the middle of the day (when the market is open) as it tends to panic some shaky holders.
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Just to reinforce what @Ubermicro & @madamswer said above.This...
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