In 10 years MAF SP will be triple, plus divies along the way. Go...

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StockyBonbon

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27/02/24

10:28

Post #: 72614018
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Originally posted by Rustycage: ↑

Don't own this currently, but have drunk the cool-aid on "alts" so this is what I noticed looking through all the docs:

Good
AUM up 18%
Recurring revs up 23%
Gross inflows of $262m in 2024 already
Expenses on AM segment flat - impressive given the recurring revs growth
I look at the AM earnings as total recurring rev - expenses (I ignore transaction based rev & realized gains) - gives me AM earnings ~ $60m for the year, which is 2x last year's figure and is impressive given the segment's expenses were basically flat! Basically, at 800m MC, you can buy the AM segment at a 13x multiple and get everything else MAF offers (lending, CA&E, transaction revs, investment gains) for $0. I know I'm excluding capitalised overheads but this isn't meant to be an accurate valuation hahaha

Ok/concerning
-5c EPS impact from growth initiatives - these guys have shown growth though, so I give them the benefit of the doubt here
Flat dividend for the year
Loan book growing is great, but I dunno how I feel about residential lending (what is it with Australians and fking houses/RE) - 71% estimated loan book CAGR through Dec 26 would be impressive
Most of the AUM flows are basically for credit in FY22&23 - I'm hoping the "alternative RE" segment, with the marinas/hospitality stuff will balance this out a bit
The Core RE segment hasn't grown AUM for s*** since 2019 - I know we had COVID, but compare this against the RE flows of the big US alt managers

Bad
CA&E segment had a stinker, but TBH, I don't care about this segment - the rev per executive has pretty much been flat for ages (natural ceiling maybe) so it can only grow by adding staff which means there's no operating leverage? I'm guessing this segment is viewed as part of the flywheel so it's here to stay
MA Specialty is tiny @ 154m loan book - would be nice if they worked on growing this - could this be a future Apollo-like segment?
Listed equities is blah - get rid of it lol

Basically, I care about the recurring revenue and cost management in the AM segment and look at the rest as $0 because I'm too dumb to figure out what it is worth. Feel free to argue with my thoughts

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In 10 years MAF SP will be triple, plus divies along the way. Go and listen to podcasts of the execs talking about MAF, the culture, and staff buy-in etc. Staff all have incentives and are shareholders too. CA&E will recover and tick along nicely. They will slowly add other strings to their bow, and just keep growing the business nicely. A good growth/value stock that you can put away in the bottom drawer and let them do their thing.
MAF Price at posting: $4.22 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
4 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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