my thinking was just the implied valuation of the business based on:
Share price $0.84
minus NTA $0.69 per share (saleable assets less debt)
equals $0.14 per share
then i took 1H 23 NPAT of $10m, and doubled it to a full year ($20m)
Then $20m divided by 285m outstanding shares is $0.07 per share (earnings per share)
So you're paying for assets of $0.69/sh, and earnings of $0.15/sh.
Compared to $0.07/sh of actual earnings for pro-forma FY23 (double 1H 23)
So $0.15/sh of earnings, divided by $0.07/sh FY23 EPS, is 2.1x P/E for the portion of the share price that isnt asset-backed ($0.15/sh)
Open to comment or criticism from the group if I've missed something.
I totally get conventional P/E is market cap on earnings, which would imply 11.5x P/E, but i think its important to note in this business that:
- there is really material, hard asset (cash and saleable property) asset backing
- inventory days are 60 at the moment - so the inventory is 'cash like' in that it can be reliably turned into cash
- accounts receivable is greater than AP so I'm comfortable including both (not that it makes a material diff to my calc)
- I've included $14m of deferred tax liability, which isnt true 'debt', so i think I'm being conservative in that regard
I know it is rough but I still think its interesting regardless.
cheers
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