They are hanging their hope on increase isn sale of goods. I have one negative on this. They say 'oh, currently we can only sell into 18,000 sites in the USA and we want to increase that to 270,000 sites. If they sold $1,000 worth of product into 18,000 sites yearlyt, that is $18 mill of sale of goods. I am not seeing that the number of sites is the problem. I am seeing the uptake of product is the problem.
EBITDA loss of 3,883k is actually a 350k profit in 2nd half, as at end of first half EBITDA was at -4,213k.
I expect EBITDA profit for 1st half 2025 (now) will be in the order of $1 mill, and current full year will be $2 mill-ish EBITDA profit. This year will be a continuation of how this past year just finished. Product sales are only just now at a level that is beyond ramp up - and can be normal. We will not see really what normal is until these next couple of quarters.
The $6 mill for the CLIA waiver study, I would not have done. But I am very conservative. The underlying business now is profitable (re EBITDA). Mind you, they gotta do it sometime - the study! So, at worst, we have a profitable business at best - and if waiver successful we should have a motza business. But that depends on UPTAKE. The product UPTAKE in the 18,000 current sites should be a proxy for the 270,000 sites. We can determine that in 6 months.
LDX Price at posting:
4.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
