Ann: FY24 Financial Results and FY25 Outlook, page-118

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MIStragic

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10/09/24

15:20

Post #: 75611437
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Originally posted by MIStragic: ↑

Well it seems the market has 2 standards when assessing gold miners
- GMD ( MC A$2.445B ) "blue sky" lead by St. Raleigh Finlayson
- and RED ( MC A$2.261B ) "cloudy sky" lead by Lucifer reincarnate Cool Hand Luke Tonkin.
GMD's cash flow became positive in FY'24 and has "aspirations to become a 400k p.a. producer" ....
The reality is shown below .... 350k p.a. is GMD's upper range guidance for FY'34.
GMD FY'24 AISC = A$2356 and they promise it will gradually fall to A$1600 .... geez is there something about Gwalia Deeps we don't know ?

Meanwhile hopeless RED (VAU) ended FY'24 debt free, cash A$442m gold + bullion A$11m, (only) produced 445k oz for FY'24.
Guidance is for only 430k for FY'25, and beyond that, after KOTH is further optimised to 6mtpa+ perhaps much more ?
By the beginning of FY'27 VAU will be hedge free, remain debt free, and perhaps with only A$600m+ cash reserves ?
By FY'27, Mt.Monger FY'25 investments will be bearing fruit, as well as Deflector and Rothsay (?) and perhaps be Sugar free (?)
As you can see, VAU is not for the faint hearted ....

The extreme panglossian view of GMD on the one hand and VAU derisory pessimism by professed those with shareholdings in both, is amusing and ridiculous - VAU has the best plant in Leonora, has further expansion potential, and VAU lessor assets are surely equivalent to GMD lessor assets ??
As for dividends, does one seriously think GMD will be paying (meaningful) dividends before VAU ??
St. Raf is famous for selling the dream to NST, and then walking away at NST peak SP, much richer and Midas reincarnate (in the eyes of some).
Those who believe that GMD can grow "organically" (without further Leonora consolidation) and multiply its SP are dreaming ....
Those who don't believe VAU has some great assets and is run by competent professionals with a long track record of successful mine management, are wilfully blind .... and they will remain perpetual RED Cassandra's .... such is life.

P.S. Petra have lowered their SP target 15% from 50c to 44c/share - they've thrown out some bath water, but not the baby.

Expand

Monsters of Rock: More analysts join the gold bull team
JOSH CHIAT
22 hours ago

*
( Lets hope these predictions are in the right ball park - higher POG will underwrite VAU's recovery, consolidation and profit expansion )
RBC tips 2025 gold prices of US$2835/oz as latest bank to up forecasts
That's up 31% on its April tip
Far East Capital's Warwick Grigor warns gold investors need to look beyond prices alone and pay attention to producers' hedge and grade profiles
RBC has emerged as the latest bank to stick a bullish forecast on gold, lifting its base case for 2024 and 2025 averages to US$2390/oz and US$2835/oz respectively.
Bell Potter's David Coates last week told * he did not issue it as an official target, but though gold could hit US$3000/oz in the next six to nine months
RED Price at posting: 28.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
6 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Ann: FY24 Financial Results and FY25 Outlook, page-118

Monsters of Rock: More analysts join the gold bull team

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